E Evidence Press

Press release · 8 September 2026 · version 0.1.0-candidate

Power concavity of symmetric stable densities: sharp degeneration at the Gaussian boundary

Symmetric stable densities approach a Gaussian locally while their best global power-concavity exponent deteriorates logarithmically.

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Summary

A probability curve can look almost Gaussian across every fixed window and still behave differently far out in its tails. This candidate quantifies that difference for symmetric stable distributions: the best global power-concavity constraint gets arbitrarily weaker as the Gaussian is approached, although the Gaussian itself is log-concave.

The result also excludes a proposed density exponent throughout the non-Gaussian family except at the Cauchy distribution. This is an unrefereed mathematical candidate, with written proofs and a separate finite interval certificate.

Summary for specialists

For the density $f_\alpha$ with characteristic function $e^{-|t|^\alpha}$, define $R_\alpha=f_\alpha f_\alpha''/(f_\alpha')^2$ on the positive half-line. The sharp nonpositive density exponent is $s_\alpha^\star=1-\sup R_\alpha$. The manuscript proves

$$s_{2-\epsilon}^\star\sim-\frac16\log(1/\epsilon),\qquad \epsilon\downarrow0,$$

whereas $s_2^\star=0$. It also proves $s_\alpha^\star<-1/(1+\alpha)$ for $0<\alpha<2$, $\alpha\ne1$, with $s_1^\star=-1/2$. At the rational point $\alpha=1999/1000$, $x=15/2$, an Arb calculation certifies $12/5<R_\alpha(x)<5/2$, excluding every density exponent in $[-1,0]$.

Technical account

The qualitative existence argument, already present in the retained catalogue research, reduces the question to boundedness of a curvature ratio. It is included with attribution, together with negative curvature at the unique mode.

The quantitative argument rotates the Fourier integral and obtains a Gaussian-plus-algebraic-tail estimate with a remainder uniform in both position and stability index. The moving lower-bound point balances the two first-derivative contributions, not the two densities. Compact, transition and remote-tail estimates then bound the entire curvature supremum and identify the constant $1/6$.

Separately, the next term of the differentiated tail expansion has the sign needed to make the limiting tail exponent strictly unattainable, except at Cauchy. The finite certificate uses a Taylor polynomial with an explicit absolute integral remainder; exploratory quadrature is not proof evidence.

Evidence, assurance and limitations

Theorems 1–3 rest on the written analytic argument. The interval certificate establishes only the stated pointwise inequality. Producer checks cover fresh extraction, two precision/truncation choices, optimized Python, deliberately insufficient truncation and false-claim controls. Five producer-coordinated AI roles reviewed the frozen package; supporting-record corrections were checked afterwards.

External specialist review, unaffiliated reproduction, formal verification and historical priority are not established. There is no closed-form optimal exponent at every fixed index, no skew-stable classification, and no new statistical procedure. The supplied review reported symbolic and noninterval numerical checks; its linked implementation was unavailable and is not counted as established independent reimplementation.

Relationship to earlier work

The strict tail theorem contradicts the density-concavity conjecture in Laha–Miao–Wellner, arXiv v2, §5, p.21. Their bi-concavity parameter constrains the distribution and survival functions; failure of the stronger density condition does not establish failure of those weaker constraints. The comparison is version-qualified, not a priority claim.

The finite witness also answers negatively the universal $(-1,0]$ density-membership question discussed by Doss–Wellner and contradicts the finite-dimensional threshold clause in the inspected Bobkov–Madiman preprint. Classical stable tail expansions remain prior ingredients.

Who should care, and why

AudiencePotential useRequired caution
Probability analystsA uniform matching argument for a global shape functional near a singular endpoint.The written argument awaits external scrutiny.
Shape-constrained statisticiansAn obstruction to imposing a fixed density-concavity class across stable indices.This does not invalidate weaker CDF constraints or supply a new estimator.
Reproduction researchersA short interval certificate and deliberate false-claim controls.Replaying one backend is not independent reconstruction.

Why the problem matters

Local convergence and global shape membership answer different questions. An increasingly distant tail region can determine the admissible global class even when every fixed window approaches a familiar limiting density. The sharp rate explains the size of that separation.

How to inspect or reproduce the recorded checks

Read SOLUTION.pdf, then the source and assurance records. In a fresh extraction, install the pinned python-flint==0.9.0 dependency and run python verify.py, python semantic_controls.py and python -O semantic_controls.py. The expected result is PASS, including required rejection of deliberately insufficient truncation and false claims.

Download BUNDLE_REPLAY.json alongside the final ZIP. It is a companion receipt that binds the complete archive hash; it is deliberately outside the archive to avoid self-reference. The archive's SHA256SUMS covers its payload files.

The most valuable next projects

Unaffiliated proof scrutiny and independent interval reconstruction would strengthen assurance. Fixed-index sharp exponents, explicit onset bounds and weaker distribution-function constraints are distinct mathematical follow-ups. A broader later-literature audit is needed before any historical-priority assertion.

What is in the evidence package

The release contains the nine-page PDF, Markdown and LaTeX sources, bibliography, exact cached AIM statement, source and novelty audits, code, interval outputs, fail-closed controls, review responses, five internal role reports, manifests and component licences. GitHub and Zenodo carry matching release assets, including the separate replay receipt and the frozen editorial submission.

Media

The audio briefing is provided in the header above. Download the MP3 briefing · read the transcript.

Open directions for follow-up research

Also available in machine-readable form for research agents and follow-up projects.

  1. Obtain unaffiliated scrutiny of the uniform remainder and global sharp-constant proof.
  2. Determine sharp density exponents or explicit onset bounds at fixed stability indices.
  3. Study the optimal weaker CDF and survival-function shape constraints separately.
  4. Audit later literature and historical priority before claiming novelty.

Research process, metrics and reusable methods

Prospective process metadata under the Evidence Press operating model and research-metrics policy. It records the intended handoff, measured scope and claim boundary; it is not evidence that the method accelerated this work.

Work ID
ep-work:stable-power-concavity-gaussian-boundary
Attempt and metric receipts
  • ep-attempt:stable-power-concavity-gaussian-boundary-assurance-publication — published / positive

    Measurement scope
    assurance-through-publication — Prospective remaining assurance and publication only. Completed research and initial review-driven textual revisions predate this work-ledger registration and are excluded. The separate publication-state forecast predates those revisions. No historical discovery clock is reconstructed.
    Frozen target
    Pass five-role editorial review and deterministic checks, publish exact GitHub/Zenodo assets and complete guarded Evidence Press readback.
    Fermi active-time forecast
    150 minutes; plausible interval 100–210; expected unattended wait 30. Reference class: Evidence Press full-candidate procedural prior (n=0) — Procedural prior, not an empirical calibrated sample..
    • Package and PDF checks: 1 × 25/35/50 minutes (low/central/high) — Existing analytic manuscript, interval certificate, minor source and packaging revisions.
    • Five-role editorial review: 1 × 20/30/45 minutes (low/central/high) — One bounded round.
    • Archives, page and media: 1 × 35/50/65 minutes (low/central/high) — Established scripts and authenticated services.
    • Guarded public readback: 1 × 20/35/50 minutes (low/central/high) — Composite gates and CI.
    Tractability forecast
    Within 300 active minutes: positive signal 0.8; target closure 0.8. Stop rule: Fail closed on proof, rights, CI or byte-integrity defects. Publication timing forecasts are not stopping caps.
    Observed clocks
    17 active-agent; unknown active-human; unknown substantive-compute; 0 unattended-wait; 82 blocked; 0 rework minutes. Calendar elapsed: 115 minutes.
    Research search
    Cycles: 0 positive, 0 negative, 0 inconclusive. Falsification gates: 3. Candidate architectures: 1 tested, 0 rejected.
    Agent and review load
    6 agent runs; maximum parallelism 4; 171 model turns; 20406869 deduplicated model tokens; 1 substantive review rounds; P0/P1 findings 0/0; pre-publication claim corrections 0.
    Result and calibration
    target-closed — Review revisions, five-role internal editorial acceptance, producer interval checks, exact public archives and first canonical release completed. The research predated this assurance/publication attempt; no new discovery cycle, external validation or priority is claimed. Positive signal: true; target reached: true. Active-time error -133 minutes; actual/forecast 0.11333333333333333; inside interval: false. Brier score: positive signal 0.04; target closure 0.04. Variance: Active time is the floored union of observed model-response generation spans, a strict lower bound excluding initial latency and tool execution; it is not a comparable total-cost or speed estimate. The recorded Zenodo transport block spans 10:25:38 to successful curl readback at 11:47:38 UTC (82 rounded minutes), including intervening user-response waits. CI and builds overlapped other work; zero unattended/rework minutes means no separately metered interval, not absence of waiting or repair. Packaging repairs included curl transport, local iCloud hydration, forecast arithmetic, pending assurance and audio inventory. Three falsification families: undertruncation, optimized rejection, false semantic claims. One existing architecture assessed; discovery cycles and initial review revisions predate registration.
    Missing telemetry
    activeHumanMinutes — Human effort was not instrumented.; computeMinutes — Substantive computation was not separately metered.
    Measurement corrections
    • measurement.agentRuns -> metrics.outcome.agentRuns — Opening 1 retained; terminal 6. Reason: Preserve opening one-agent snapshot; terminal count includes five completed internal role agents.
Prospective work ledger · metrics policy
Intended aims
science
Artifact roles
research-output, evidence-assessment, communication
Decision object
bound — Sharp endpoint asymptotic and density-concavity obstruction. Scope: Symmetric stable densities with characteristic function exp(-abs(t)^alpha), 0<alpha<=2.
Reusable methods
Exact regime stitching (regime-stitching); Certificate-first, proof-carrying research (certificate-first); Adversarial scientific controls (adversarial-controls); Assurance as a vector (assurance-vector); Agent-readable research objects (agent-readable-research-object) · registry
Targeted clocks
assurance, publication
Semantic bridge
explicit — Curvature ratio characterizes negative density powers; uniform Gaussian-plus-tail estimates cover compact, transition and remote regions. Remaining risks: Written proof awaits external scrutiny.; Interval backend and analytic remainder are trusted for the finite witness.; Historical priority and later conjecture status remain unestablished..
Human judgement gates
  • Scrutinize the uniform and global analytic bounds.
  • Keep density, measure and CDF concavity distinct.
  • Assess priority and significance separately.
  • Preserve rights, creator and assurance boundaries.
Next assurance action
Obtain unaffiliated proof review and separately implemented interval checks. Claim ceiling: Unrefereed analytic proof candidate with a finite Arb certificate. No optimal fixed-index closed form, weaker CDF-concavity conclusion, historical priority, external specialist review, formal verification or practical impact is claimed.
Aim-scoped impact evidence
  • science: NO_IMPACT_EVIDENCE — Inspectable density-concavity obstruction and endpoint bound candidate in Producer-coordinated mathematical publication. Design: none; comparator: No matched comparator.; estimand: No speed or impact effect estimated.. No real-world effect evidence is asserted.

Verification status

Unrefereed analytic proof candidate with a finite Arb certificate. No optimal fixed-index closed form, weaker CDF-concavity conclusion, historical priority, external specialist review, formal verification or practical impact is claimed.

Cite

Anonymous. (2026). Power concavity of symmetric stable densities: sharp degeneration at the Gaussian boundary (Version 0.1.0-candidate) [Unrefereed candidate]. Evidence Press. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22659265
BibTeX
@misc{stablepowerconcavitygaussianboundary2026,
  title        = {Power concavity of symmetric stable densities: sharp degeneration at the Gaussian boundary},
  author       = {Anonymous},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {10.5281/zenodo.22659265},
  url          = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22659265},
  version      = {0.1.0-candidate},
  howpublished = {Zenodo},
  note         = {Unrefereed; internally replayed evidence package. Press page: https://evidencepress.org/releases/stable-power-concavity-gaussian-boundary/}
}

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