{
  "schemaVersion": "1.2",
  "slug": "certified-commitment-horizons",
  "title": "Certified Commitment Horizons in Dynamic Lot Sizing: Prefix Stability, Inverse Shortest Paths and One-Step Calibration of Forecast Revisions",
  "shortTitle": "Certified commitment horizons in dynamic lot sizing",
  "url": "https://evidencepress.org/releases/certified-commitment-horizons/",
  "oneLine": "An exact-rational candidate framework measures how far forecasts may move before an optimal Wagner–Whitin plan can abandon a selected setup prefix.",
  "abstract": "This unrefereed candidate defines a weighted commitment radius for prefix stability in the classical Wagner–Whitin dynamic lot-sizing model. It derives exact floor-aware tie radii against fixed competing paths, a polynomial frozen-comparator lower certificate, and lower–upper brackets with machine-checkable witnesses. The release includes exact-rational software, deterministic replay, adversarial tests, benchmarks and an illustrative UCI case. Producer-side replay and CI pass; independent reproduction, formal verification, conventional peer review, operational validation and a settled novelty determination have not occurred.",
  "datePublished": "2026-08-08",
  "dateModified": "2026-08-08",
  "version": "2.1.2-candidate",
  "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.21853902",
  "doiUrl": "https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21853902",
  "conceptDoi": "10.5281/zenodo.21853901",
  "pdfUrl": "https://github.com/ipitchford/certified-commitment-horizons/releases/download/v2.1.2-candidate/certified-commitment-horizons-v2.1.2-paper.pdf",
  "altPdfUrl": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ipitchford/certified-commitment-horizons/v2.1.2-candidate/paper/main.pdf",
  "zenodoUrl": "https://zenodo.org/records/21853902",
  "repoUrl": "https://github.com/ipitchford/certified-commitment-horizons",
  "releaseUrl": "https://github.com/ipitchford/certified-commitment-horizons/releases/tag/v2.1.2-candidate",
  "markdownUrl": "https://evidencepress.org/releases/certified-commitment-horizons/index.md",
  "bibtexUrl": "https://evidencepress.org/releases/certified-commitment-horizons/cite.bib",
  "audioUrl": "https://evidencepress.org/assets/audio/certified-commitment-horizons.mp3",
  "imageUrl": "https://evidencepress.org/assets/og/certified-commitment-horizons.png",
  "coverArtUrl": "https://evidencepress.org/assets/art/certified-commitment-horizons.svg",
  "media": [
    {
      "type": "audio",
      "url": "https://evidencepress.org/assets/audio/certified-commitment-horizons.mp3",
      "name": "Audio briefing — certified commitment horizons",
      "description": "AI-generated voice summary of the candidate framework and its assurance boundary.",
      "transcriptUrl": "https://evidencepress.org/assets/audio/certified-commitment-horizons.txt"
    }
  ],
  "authors": [
    "Anonymous agentic research workflow"
  ],
  "license": "CC0-1.0",
  "status": "unrefereed-candidate",
  "verification": {
    "peerReviewed": false,
    "independentlyReproduced": false,
    "formallyVerified": false,
    "internallyReplayed": true,
    "detail": "Unrefereed candidate mathematical and computational result. Producer-side full replay, exact-rational certificate checking, normal and optimized-Python tests, release-integrity checks, PDF checks and GitHub Actions pass. The release has not been independently reproduced, formally verified, conventionally peer reviewed or tested in an operating supply chain. The UCI illustration reconstructs forecast vintages and uses stylised costs. Novelty remains conditional because the full text of Richter and Vörös (1989), directly relevant to parametric dynamic lot sizing, was unavailable in the documented bounded search."
  },
  "assurance": [
    {
      "dimension": "availability",
      "label": "Availability and archiving",
      "question": "Is the evidence package publicly retrievable from an archive under a persistent identifier?",
      "state": "passed",
      "evidenceUrl": "https://zenodo.org/records/21853902",
      "note": "The exact candidate archive, checksum sidecar, paper PDF and verification receipt are public under version DOI 10.5281/zenodo.21853902."
    },
    {
      "dimension": "internalReplay",
      "label": "Internal replay",
      "question": "Does the producer’s own pipeline reproduce the stated result from the archived package?",
      "state": "passed",
      "note": "Producer-side full replay passed; GitHub Actions replayed the packaged wheel, manifest, exact checks and normal and optimized tests on Python 3.11 and 3.13.",
      "evidenceUrl": "https://github.com/ipitchford/certified-commitment-horizons/actions/runs/31270813587"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "independentRerun",
      "label": "Independent rerun",
      "question": "Has someone else run the supplied implementation and obtained the stated result?",
      "state": "not-assessed",
      "note": "No unaffiliated clean-room rerun of the exact release has been reported."
    },
    {
      "dimension": "independentReimplementation",
      "label": "Independent reimplementation",
      "question": "Has someone else reached the result from an independent implementation?",
      "state": "not-assessed",
      "note": "No unaffiliated implementation of the mathematical and computational pipeline has been reported."
    },
    {
      "dimension": "formalVerification",
      "label": "Formal verification",
      "question": "Is a formalised statement machine-checked, and over which trusted base?",
      "state": "not-assessed",
      "note": "The release has exact witnesses and deterministic checkers but no end-to-end proof-assistant formalization."
    },
    {
      "dimension": "specialistReview",
      "label": "Specialist review",
      "question": "Has a domain specialist assessed the argument?",
      "state": "not-assessed",
      "note": "Internal and cross-model adversarial reviews are included, but no external specialist review of the exact release is claimed."
    },
    {
      "dimension": "editorialPeerReview",
      "label": "Editorial peer review",
      "question": "Has a journal or venue run peer review to a decision?",
      "state": "not-assessed",
      "note": "No conventional venue peer review has occurred."
    },
    {
      "dimension": "dataEnvironmentReproducibility",
      "label": "Data and environment reproducibility",
      "question": "Are data and computational environment pinned well enough to rebuild?",
      "state": "passed",
      "evidenceUrl": "https://github.com/ipitchford/certified-commitment-horizons/blob/v2.1.2-candidate/docs/reproducibility.md",
      "note": "The release pins its Python environment and records exact source-data and archive hashes; the UCI illustration is not operational field validation."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "aiGenerated": true,
    "aiAssisted": true,
    "generatedBy": [
      "Anonymous agentic research workflow"
    ],
    "humanRole": "Research objective, publication authorization, repository maintenance and project management by Ian Pitchford.",
    "disclosure": "The package records an anonymous agentic workflow as scholarly creator and Ian Pitchford as repository maintainer and publisher. Producer-side replay, internal adversarial review and model agreement are not independent verification or peer review."
  },
  "problem": null,
  "corrections": [],
  "keywords": [
    "dynamic lot sizing",
    "Wagner-Whitin",
    "stability radius",
    "inverse optimisation",
    "forecast revisions",
    "rolling horizon",
    "exact rational certification",
    "reproducible research",
    "AI-generated mathematics",
    "unrefereed candidate"
  ],
  "keyResults": [
    "For a fixed competing path, the candidate gives an exact floor-aware weighted-L-infinity distance to a cost tie.",
    "A prefix-deviation directed acyclic graph and Charnes–Cooper formulation give a polynomial frozen-comparator lower certificate under the paper's stated model.",
    "A positive-demand three-period instance has frozen radius 3/2 and exact strong radius 2, proving that the lower certificate can be strict for a partial prefix.",
    "Exact-rational software emits witnesses and brackets that a separately implemented producer-side checker re-verifies for the released cases."
  ],
  "reviews": [],
  "evidencePackage": "The DOI archive contains the 30-page manuscript, source code, exact-rational certificates and witnesses, quick and full replay commands, normal and optimized-Python tests, adversarial regression cases, exact enumeration and scaling benchmarks, a pinned environment, SHA-256 manifests, machine-readable claims and assurance records, provenance, licence mapping, a review response and a verification receipt. The publisher completed the full replay and GitHub Actions passed on Python 3.11 and 3.13. These are producer-side and CI checks, not independent reproduction, formal verification, peer review or field validation.",
  "openProblems": [
    "Independently rerun the exact DOI archive from a clean environment and publish the resulting receipt.",
    "Reimplement the fixed-path radius, frozen certificate and bracket checker in a separate language or codebase.",
    "Obtain and audit the full text of Richter and Vörös (1989), then repeat the recognition and novelty assessment.",
    "Determine the exact complexity of demand-induced WW-Prefix-Radius-infinity; the released exact routine is not claimed to be polynomial-time.",
    "Formalize the graph reduction, tie-radius theorem and certificate checker in a proof assistant.",
    "Evaluate the decision rule prospectively with genuine forecast vintages, actual cost structures and operational outcomes."
  ],
  "relatedWorks": [
    {
      "citation": "Wagner, H. M., & Whitin, T. M. (1958). Dynamic Version of the Economic Lot Size Model. Management Science, 5(1), 89-96.",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.5.1.89"
    },
    {
      "citation": "van Hoesel, S. P. M., & Wagelmans, A. P. M. (1993). Sensitivity Analysis of the Economic Lot-Sizing Problem. Discrete Applied Mathematics, 45(3), 291-312.",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/0166-218X(93)90016-H"
    },
    {
      "citation": "Chakravarti, N., & Wagelmans, A. P. M. (1998). Calculation of Stability Radii for Combinatorial Optimization Problems. Operations Research Letters, 23(1-2), 1-7.",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6377(98)00031-5"
    },
    {
      "citation": "Richter, K., & Vörös, J. (1989). A Parametric Analysis of the Dynamic Lot-Sizing Problem. Journal of Information Processing and Cybernetics: EIK, 25(3), 67-73. Bibliographic record only; full text was unavailable in the bounded review.",
      "url": "https://dblp.org/rec/journals/eik/RichterV89"
    },
    {
      "citation": "Forel, A., & Grunow, M. (2023). Dynamic Stochastic Lot Sizing with Forecast Evolution in Rolling-Horizon Planning. Production and Operations Management, 32(2), 449-468.",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1111/poms.13881"
    },
    {
      "citation": "Ferreira, R., Martiniano, A., Ferreira, A., Ferreira, A., & Sassi, R. (2016). Daily Demand Forecasting Orders. UCI Machine Learning Repository.",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.24432/C5BC8T"
    }
  ]
}